How do I tell if the market will go up/down tomorrow?

I know that there is no straight factual answer to this, however, are there any types of tools or signs that i can use such as momentum, that may help predict the stock market’s strength or weakness in the upcoming day?

How to calculate when momentum or motion is running out?

If I wanted to apply some science to the stock market.. how could I determine when the momentum of a stock uptrend was getting weaker?

Thanks for the insight!

Collar Strategy Can Protect Your Stocks

Hoping and praying that the stocks that you just bought will go up is not the best strategy to use, however it is the one very often used by the average Joe stock trader who is using simple trading indicators. The only salvation they have is that in bull markets most stocks will go up.

Statistics show that in a bull market about 75% of the stocks will follow the general trend and go up, and in a bear market 75% will also go down. Trading with the trend is the best way to trade as 9 out of 12 stocks will follow the trend and give you the best chance of making gains on your stock purchases.

But what if you own some nice stocks and don’t want to sell when the market is clearly going down, or about to go down?. There are a few tactics that you can consider, both of which involve the use of options, CALL options and PUT options. There is the well known strategy called Covered Calls, and the much lesser known one called the Married Put.

If you are going to trade options it is important that before you start trading you get the best option trading education that you can. You should also practice stock trading until you are comfortable with the process. This is a very important point that must be taken seriously, if you don’t understand the terminology and theory then you should not be trading options. If Put option, Call option, Married Put and Covered Call are new to you then don’t trade until you have studied sufficiently.

Selling calls against your stock in 100 share increments is the basis of the covered call strategy and it can provide about a 2-7% buffer against the loss in stock price. However a bigger drop in the stock price will not be compensated for using the covered call strategy, in general.

Stocks in a bear market, and even in a bull market, can drop quickly on news or earnings releases, as much as 15 to 45% within a month. Using covered calls to protect your stocks will only provide limited protection of less than 7% at best and so will not save you if the stock takes a 40% tumble.

The better solution to providing downside stock protection is the option strategy called the Married Put. As the name suggests the PUT that you buy is used to provide protection when the stock goes down because Put options increase in value when the stock decreases in value. The term married is used because the option that is selected has to be very compatible with the stock, in other words a good match, if the strategy is to work.

The selection of the best Put option is not straight forward and involves several criteria which are listed below:

1. The strike price of the option

2. The current share price

3. Choice of options, in or out of the money

4. Put expiration time

Even though the married Put protection only has a short life span if offers much more protection than the covered call. It can provide as much as 95% loss recovery in the event of a significant drop in the stock price.

The downside of the good protection is that you have buy the Put which is a cash debit whereas the covered call is a credit. But there are ways of off-setting this expense and there is much more to this strategy when executed correctly. The Married Put can be made to just about pay for itself and used to generate very good gains if the market, or stock to be specific, moves a lot.

The general idea of the Collar Trade is to combine the covered call and married Put strategy into one, this is what is called the Collar Trade. In effect you put a collar around the stock, sell a call and buy a PUT. If you do this correctly most of the cost of the Put can be offset by the credit from the covered call so you can protect your stock at almost no cost. Yes this is a great strategy which the general public is unfortunately ignorant of, and most brokers don’t understand.

The strategy that I have outlined above is unknown to the average stock market trader but is one of the best trading systems you could have.

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How To Buy The Best Stocks

Although it may seem obvious to most stock market swing traders there are a number of simple rules that you can follow which will ensure that you have more success when buying stocks:

In the USA stock market there are 3 major indexes which are each made up of a basket of stocks, they are the S and P 500 (also known as the S&P500), the DOW 30 and the Nadaq 100. These stock indexes generally only contain major blue chip stocks, as long as you buy from these 3 groups you will at least know that you are getting a well known solid stock.

For example the DOW 30 contains major industrials and large multinational stocks such as Home Depot (HD) and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) whereas the Nasdaq 100 mainly contains techical companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Miscrosoft (MSFT).

Always buy a stock that is liquid, this means that it is a highly traded stock, this will enable you to quickly buy and sell at the price you want without having a delay. You will also get a lower spread, thats the difference between the BID and ASK price of the stock. For a stock to be considered highly liquid it should trade at least 500,000 shares per day, ideally even more.

It is best to aviod stocks that are bellow as this usually means the company is in trouble, although with the bear market of 2008/9 there have been a lot of good stocks at bargin prices between and . Avoid buying a stock below at anytime.

Another consideration is options, does the stock has options?, this will be important if you want to trade options around your stock, such as a covered call, or you may want to buy a PUT option in order to protect your stock.

Be very cautious about buying a stock just before it’s earnings release, stocks often drop significantly if you come out with a poor report. Earnings releases are 4 times a year with one of them being the annual report.

If you are going to trade options make sure that you learn how to trade by getting some good education. There are many swing trading strategies that work well with stocks in todays volatile markets.

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The markets are meant to be traded

Investors who know what they are doing are always looking for ways to make money. For all purposes, it is an American institution. But there’s a reason why they call it a scheme, which typically means a devious or secret plan of action. Most schemes that promise to make you millions by day trading, are about as likely as winning in roulette. Yes, it is true that most day trading systems are little more that informed gambling, but they are gambling all the same. If you think about it, day trading is gambling, you are betting you are fast enough to enter and exit in a very short period of time and escape with a profit.

 

What will it take to make a good day trade? To begin with, you need to understand that there is no such thing as easy money. You should never go into a day trade thinking that you are going to make a million. Day trading is all about making small profits several times a day which eventually add up. An experienced day trader will not risk too much on any one day trade. Instead, they buy small numbers of shares of companies that they’re familiar with.

How do day traders know which stocks to trade? Most traders will select stocks that they have been following for quite some time. Having analyzed and monitored the numbers over a few a weeks a trader gets convinced to trade a stock.

Though there are a number of different strategies that day traders employ, most day trading strategies rely heavily on technical analysis. Technical stock analysis means that traders believe that he can detect patterns in the way a stock trades by looking at charts. For example, a trader may discover that a certain stock tends to move in a tight trading range most days. This may mean that a stock moves only two or three points every day. For example, one day it can open at 33, move to 36, then fall to 34. It is the job of the day trader to keep tabs on these trades and see if he can discern a predictable pattern in these daily movements.Learning to watch and pay attention to these types of regular volatility patterns will really pay off in the long term for anyone looking to day trade.The real key is to try to concentrate on just a few select stocks in the beginning so that you do not go down the path of information overload.

This method may seem easy, but it works. All a trader has to do is to concentrate on one particular stock and watch its movements each and every day. After a little while, the trader will have the confidence to make a day trade. While this strategy may not may you a millionaire overnight, it is likely that you will be able to amass small profits several times a day, which will eventually add up. It isn’t unusual for day traders to trade the exact same stock over a hundred times each day.  This is because they believe they have discovered the secret to the successful day trade and that the more they trade the more they will make.

 

Three Tips For Smarter Stock Investing

Contrary to popular belief, the stock market is not a black hole. There are many investors who make significant profits investing in stocks, mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs) and more.

To avoid the dreaded investing black hole and conquer the stock market, remember these 3 essential tips:

1. Be Knowledgeable and Resourceful

The key to successful investing is to know absolutely anything and everything about the company and the factors that affect its overall performance. There are two outstanding resources to check out before investing in the stock market:

a. Newspapers: find out updated information about the country and regional economy from newspapers. These conditions can influence the health of the stock market. Besides news about the economy, news about society, weather and politics can also have an influence on stock investments.

b. Internet: online resources provide valuable information such as "How To Be The Next Warren Buffet". Search engines make it easy and quick to find what you're looking for by simply typing in your search request. Visit the Website of the company you want to invest in to obtain official information about corporate set up, current financial health and their historical stock performance.

2. Analyze Prospects Carefully

Information garnered from the Internet can be overwhelming and some of it is inaccurate. Every source you review must be carefully scrutinized for validity. Pay attention to the details and if you don't find reliable info to back up a particular claim, move on to another website. use bookmarks while researching. Skim through each link on the list and bookmark the useful ones for reading later. When you have 3 or 4 sites bookmarked, you are ready to star conducting detailed stock mark research.

3. Patience is Key

Along with having strategy, you must be patient. If you do not need the profit immediately, hold on for a longer period of time. Stock market investments gain an average of 10 to 12 percent over a period of 10 years. If you stick it out and hold onto your stocks for that long, there's a good chance you'll realize this return.

When you keep these 3 essential stock market tips in mind, your research will make you a more effective stock market investor.

How to Make Money in a Down Stock Market

 

One of the core questions my coaching clients have asked me over the past few months is: “Can I still make money in stocks with the market down like its been?” The answer is yes, or no, depending on the type of investments you have.

 

If you hold stocks, stock mutual funds, or your investment is in the standard asset allocation accounts the answer is probably no. This is because these investments are held in large, regulated accounts that don’t allow short stock positions. This means that if the stock market goes down over the next 3-5 years, the accounts will lose money every single year.

 

Short positions, however, will allow you to make money whether or not the market goes down. These types of investments are only available to companies and individuals who trade individual accounts.

 

If you trade through your individual account rather than a fund, it is possible to for you to take charge of your own investment and make money in the stock market almost every day. That way, despite whether a stock value increases or decreases, you can make money, buy buying or selling short, as applicable.

 

If it’s that easy, why isn’t everyone doing it? It does take an investment of about $25,000 to set up your individual account. Some people don’t have the funds, or are reluctant to risk it in an individual account. And, it is true that stock trading for a novice can be very challenging. You could lose all your investment fast if you aren’t sure what to do.

 

There are tactics to alleviate these two concerns of the novice trader.

 

First, find a trading program that gives you low risk trade picks. The system I and my students use has stock pickers with an average experience level of thirty one years. With such experienced pickers, a trader can follow their picks with a high probability that they will profit from the trade. And if you set your stops to tie in with your personal risk tolerance level, your loss over time will be minimal.

 

Secondly, it’s important to find a program that walks you through every step to success. For example, in my 9 day trading class the students learn every aspect of using a turnkey system that is both safe and profitable to buy and sell short stocks, so that you can make money even if the stock market goes down.

 

Regardless of the system you choose, if you make sure that it has experienced advisors and a program that walks you through every step of the way, you can be smiling all the way to the bank while everyone around you is moaning about the poor performing stock market.

 

To read about other lessons I learned in my fifteen years as a day trader and coach, as well as tips and techniques for becoming successful at stock trading, even in a bad economy, read my free report “From Video Junkie to Day Trader,” and learn more about how you could be trading stocks profitably in as little as two weeks.

Truths of Stock Trading

There are thousands of fallacies about the stock trading discipline that arouse fear in a new trader’s mind and prevent others from even trying their hand at it in the first place. As a successful trader for over 15 years, I prefer to take a more positive approach and deal with the prevailing truths that exist in the field of stock trading.  Here are just a few. 

 

1.You will be rewarded from stock trading by keeping your trades low risk on a regular basis. Sure, this attitude will result in you missing out on the occasional windfall that the movies have led us all to believe can happen all the time.But you will find that, over time, waiting and hoping for those godsend trades usually results in an insane loss that deteriorates the portfolio you worked so hard to build.Better to stay lower risk with steady profits over time if you are looking to make stock trading more than a hobby.

 

2.  You don’t have to spend all day trading to be extremely successful.  This does not have to be a full time job.  But please don’t misunderstand.I’m not implying that stock trading is another make money while you sleep angle.  It takes time and effort to learn the systems needed to achieve success at stock trading. But, by using GAP trading effectively, my trading day lasts between two and four hours, plus another hour of prep time.And, I earn a great living.  With the right system, you can too. 

 

3.Building on the knowledge and the experiences of other profitable traders can greatly accelerate your learning cycle.  Don’t start from scratch because it will take you 10 or more years and a lot of money to make all the mistakes others have already made.It is just resourceful business sense to build on the knowledge of others.  How many times do we hear “don’t reinvent the wheel”, then turn around and do just that?Instead, read works by successful traders, take courses, find advisors and coaches, and use the insights of others to make your journey more enjoyable and low risk. 

 

Stock trading is often portrayed as mysterious and hard for “regular guys” to understand.Take it from a “regular guy”, that is just not correct.  With the right systems in place and a working knowledge of the basic truths of stock trading, anyone can be successful. 

 

To read about other lessons I learned in my fifteen years as a day trader and coach, as well as tips and techniques for becoming successful at stock trading, read my free report “From Video Junkie to Day Trader,” and learn more about how you could be trading stocks profitably in as little as two weeks. 

Trading Without Some Computer Tools Is Like Flying Blind

More than ever before, computer trading is taking over the markets.There are computer programs to execute orders, scalp and arbitrage 1000s of times a day, and even programs and tools designed to exploit the weaknesses of other tools that are in the market.  There are hundreds of companies that have created sophisticated charting packages to help day traders find ideas, including day trading robots.  All of this points to the same thing:  computers are here to stay, its up to you as a day trader to figure out how to get the best tools to find ideas to make money.

This does not mean throw thousands of dollars at every "hot" product - this usually does nothing to generate anything useful.Additionally, each day trader can only focus on so many things at the same time, you do not need overload as that can actually backfire and make it far worse.  Some people like to use a day trading robot to help, others like to put together a set of indicators with some basic useage rules and that works for them.You need to establish a decent regimen for finding ideas that is followed the same way each time so that ideas are considtent.Those will never be consistent or valuable in the long run because of the sporadic nature of how they are created.

When it comes to computer tools to help you, there is an additional thing to consider:  you can get a program that allows you to custom write your own rules and indicators and then apply them in real time.This is a good options if you are a more experienced trader and have the programming knowledge (or want to learn) to get the job done.  This can be very very time consuming, and often you can spend hours or days of work only to discover that the theory you are testing is not valid and all the work is wasted.  In fact, if you go down this path, this will happen quite often but is part of the learning and development process.  Some day traders who go down this path will do part of it themselves, then get an outside person to help them finish some difficult parts.  Indicators are quite simple as far as complexity, and then you have the other end of the spectrum which is a day trading robot which usually is quite complex because of all the parts that go into creating such a tool, so plan your time accordingly.