If the recent run up on oil company stocks is caused by momentum, what are the chances that prices will fall once the exuberance is over?

(yahoo finance 10-17)
Many analysts believe speculative investing is the real culprit behind oil’s 11 percent rally over the last week, arguing that supply and demand fundamentals do not support prices near a barrel. Traders see technical signs in the differences between current and future oil contracts that suggest money continues to be plowed into oil futures. Those signals spark new buying that pushes prices even higher.

"I think the market has been trading on momentum," said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Fimat USA LLC.